My work only deals with evidence. It takes things you think you know and either contradicts them, supports them or does something else entirely. My currency is fact. But sometimes fact isn’t enough.
There are two situations that spring to mind when I think about gut feeling. The first is when a project doesn’t feel quite as it’s being presented. There’s no evidence for it, just conversations, backtracking or little comments that don’t fit.
I’m going to be honest and admit I’m bad at managing these situations. The spidey senses kick in and I tell myself it’ll all be fine. More often than not, it isn’t. After 16 years of working solo, these are the projects that haunt me.
So far I’ve talked about the cost of ignoring instinct. But there’s another risk — giving it too much authority.
Confirmation bias is difficult to navigate. Once we believe something, we naturally start looking for evidence that supports it. Put this into data terms. If your Fundraiser says supporters behave in a certain way, do you also look for evidence that says they don’t?
And this is where things can take a turn. If the evidence says one thing, but behaviour is telling a different story, do you stay objective, or do you start looking for the evidence your gut wants to find?
So where does that leave us?
For me, gut feeling has earned a place at the table, but not the deciding vote. If something feels off, I pay attention to it. I ask questions. I look harder. But I also try not to let that feeling become fact. Ignore instinct completely and you can miss warning signs that experience is quietly flagging. Follow it too closely and you risk introducing bias and only seeing the evidence that supports what you already believe.
Gut feeling isn’t the answer. It’s the prompt to go looking for one.
I’ve got some space over the coming months to help teams untangle reporting, supporter behaviour, processes and the awkward questions that data sometimes throws up.
And if you know a team struggling to make sense of conflicting evidence or just needs a friendly data nerd to help them think things through, I’d really appreciate an introduction.
#CharityData #Fundraising #DataManagement #DecisionMaking #DataCulture #CRM #Insights
